March 2, 2026

 

As widely reported in the news, the U.S. and Israel have launched military strikes against Iran, targeting its leadership, military infrastructure, and nuclear facilities. Iran’s Supreme Leader has been confirmed killed, and Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks across the Middle East. President Trump has indicated that the aim of the operation, known as “Operation Epic Fury,” is regime change in Tehran, with strikes expected to persist for weeks and a number of U.S. troop casualties already reported.

The situation continues to evolve rapidly, and the safety of civilians in the region and U.S. troops remains the foremost concern. While the gravity of these events cannot be understated, investors will understandably have questions about the implications for markets, oil prices, and their portfolios.

President Dwight D. Eisenhower once said that “plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” Applied to today’s situation, this suggests that while specific geopolitical events are difficult to predict, the fact that they occur regularly is not. Constructing a well-structured portfolio and developing sound financial plans is designed precisely to address this kind of uncertainty. Although each event is unique, financial markets have successfully navigated countless wars, crises, and regional conflicts throughout history, including the U.S. operation in Venezuela earlier this year.

The key takeaway for long-term investors is to separate geopolitical headlines from portfolio decision-making. With that in mind, what should investors consider as events continue to unfold in the weeks ahead?

The current strikes are the latest development in a long-running conflict


Although the scale of the current military action is significant, tensions among the U.S., Israel, and Iran have been building for a considerable period of time. This latest escalation follows a monthlong U.S. military buildup in the region, failed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, and President Trump’s pledge to support Iranian protesters who challenged the regime earlier this year.

To fully appreciate how events reached this point, it is helpful to review the broader historical timeline:

  • Tensions between Iran and the West span decades, including the Iranian regime’s longstanding backing of Hezbollah and Hamas, which have been central to conflicts throughout the Middle East.
  • In 2019, Iran launched drone strikes against Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure, temporarily disrupting global oil production and stoking fears of a wider regional conflict.
  • Hamas’s October 2023 attack on Israel reignited regional hostilities, eventually drawing in Hezbollah and intensifying tensions with Iran.
  • Last summer, Israel conducted a 12-day military campaign against Iran, targeting nuclear and ballistic missile programs in what was the most direct confrontation between the two nations in decades.
  • Earlier this year, Iranian protesters challenged the regime, with President Trump pledging U.S. support.
  • Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program failed to yield an agreement. In recent weeks, a notable U.S. military buildup in the region signaled that a broader operation was in the works, ultimately resulting in the current strikes.

The scope of the latest strikes, including the targeting of Iran’s senior leadership, is broader than prior engagements. However, history also demonstrates that such conflicts are not always a direct catalyst for sustained market movements.

Energy markets and the Strait of Hormuz


For clients, the most immediate channel through which Middle East conflicts affect financial markets is global energy prices. Iran is an OPEC member and produces approximately 3 million barrels of oil per day and 27 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. The country also borders the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most strategically important energy waterway. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, roughly one-third of all seaborne oil exports and one-fifth of global natural gas passes through this corridor. Even the possibility of disruption to this critical passage can have meaningful implications for global energy markets.

Oil prices had already been rising in anticipation of the strikes. The immediate market reaction has been a further increase in oil prices, to the low $70s for WTI and just under $80 for Brent crude. While Western countries do not directly import Iranian oil, the global nature of the oil market means that any supply disruption can affect prices broadly.

Some perspective is warranted, however. Current oil prices remain well below the 2022 peak of nearly $128 per barrel reached when Russia invaded Ukraine. The current environment is also notably different. In 2018, the U.S. became the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, with domestic production now surpassing other major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. While the U.S. continues to participate in global energy markets, this level of domestic production provides a meaningful buffer against external supply disruptions.

It is also worth bearing in mind that oil prices are notoriously difficult to forecast. When Russia invaded Ukraine, many analysts anticipated sustained elevated prices. Instead, prices stabilized and declined much sooner than expected. Likewise, the U.S. operation in Venezuela in January of this year produced a brief movement in oil prices but had little lasting effect.

The importance of remaining invested during geopolitical uncertainty


For clients, one of the most enduring lessons from past geopolitical crises is the value of remaining invested. It is entirely natural to feel unsettled when news coverage describes military strikes, retaliatory attacks, and the prospect of a broader regional conflict. These events carry real human consequences and are fundamentally different from the typical flow of market-related news around corporate earnings, valuations, and economic data.

The accompanying chart illustrates that markets have weathered even the most serious global events. From World War II to the Gulf War to the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, markets experienced short-term volatility but were ultimately driven by underlying economic fundamentals over the long term. More recently, the conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine, and between Israel and Hamas, introduced significant uncertainty but did not derail the broader market trajectory.

It is also worth noting that Iran plays a minimal direct role in most investment portfolios. The country has been subject to extensive sanctions for years, its economy has been experiencing hyperinflation, and its currency, the Rial, has collapsed in value. As a result, very few investors carry meaningful direct exposure to Iran within their asset allocations.

Markets may experience elevated volatility in the days and weeks ahead as the situation develops. Oil prices could move higher, and uncertainty may weigh on investor sentiment. However, attempting to time these moves has historically proven counterproductive. Markets have demonstrated a capacity to rebound unexpectedly, and missing even a handful of the strongest trading days can meaningfully reduce long-term returns.

The bottom line? The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran represent an important geopolitical development. However, history shows that clients who maintain diversified portfolios aligned with their long-term financial goals are best positioned to navigate periods of uncertainty.

 

 

Taylor Salisbury is a registered representative with, and securities offered through LPL Financial, member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Stratos Wealth Partners, Ltd., a registered investment advisor.  Stratos Wealth Partners, Ltd. is a separate entity from LPL Financial.

Trading instructions sent via email, fax, or voicemail will not be honored.  There is no assurance that these messages can be retrieved on a timely basis, nor is there any sure method of confirming the customer identity. The information contained in this message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed.  If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited.  If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete.

 

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

Tracking ID: 1072525